THE MOON

I love a night time moon

It hangs a bright yellow in the dark sky

Reminds me of an old mythology

About the Sun chasing the Moon

Across the sky, Of Luna and Sol

Stories of Longing and Hope

Of separation and prevention

They were just stories

In reality, the Sun and Moon

Complement each other

And a bright yellow pall is cast down

The night time Moon is crisp

Her details exposed

Night time Moon is the perfect Moon

With all her flaws and scars

Makes the narrative complete

She does blow minds away

Brightly glowing in the cloudless sky

Escorted by shooting stars

Perfect epitome of beauty

Daily Dose for the Soul — Be Inspired..!!

https://Purkofreshfarm.wordpress.com

It is not your job to make something happen, Universal forces are in place for all of that. You work is to simply determine what you want. You cannot cease your constant list of preference, so your life experience helps you determine, at both conscious and unconscious levels, what you prefer, and how life, from […]

Daily Dose for the Soul — Be Inspired..!!

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Daily Dose for the Soul — Be Inspired..!!

It is not your job to make something happen, Universal forces are in place for all of that. You work is to simply determine what you want. You cannot cease your constant list of preference, so your life experience helps you determine, at both conscious and unconscious levels, what you prefer, and how life, from […]

Daily Dose for the Soul — Be Inspired..!!

Economic Recovery Curves in the New Normal. Part:1

Take your pick:- INVERTED SQUARE ROOT, J, L, SWOOSH, U, V, W, Z Recovery Curves.

1). Inverted Square Root Recovery Curve
Coined by Fanancier George Soros years ago, he suggested that it would be impossible to accurately forecast the Gross Domestic Product increase or decrease as a result of a Crisis. Explained as; there could be a rebound from the bottom in terms of Gross Domestic Product and settles a step down.

2). The J-Shaped Recovery Curve
This is an unrealistic scenario in which growth (GDP) rises sharply from the lows; much higher, and stands still at the trend line.

3). The L-Shaped Recovery Curve
This is the worst case scenario in which growth after falling, stagnates at low levels and doesn’t recover for a long long time.

4). The SWOOSH-Shaped Recovery Curve
Similar to a Nike Logo,in this scenario, after falling, GDP starts recovering quickly but then obstacles hinder its growth technologically which proves a hurdle that gradually moves it back to the trend line. A blend of the V-Shaped and U-Shaped scenario.

5). The U-Shaped Recovery Curve
This is a scenario in which the GDP , after falling, struggles and stagnates around a low growth rate for sometime before gradually rising to usual level.

6). The V-Shaped Recovery Curve
According to most Economists, this is the second best scenario in which the GDP quickly recoups lost ground and gets back to the Normal trend line characterized by a technological advancement.

7). The W-Shaped Recovery Curve
This is a scenario where GDP falls and rises but falls again before recovering steadily yet again. Hence forming a W-Like chart. The double dip depicted by a W-Shaped Recovery is what most Economists consider as a dangerous scenario whereby a second wave of Covid-19 comes along flattering to deceive; appears promising but ultimately disappoints.

8). The Z-Shaped Recovery Curve
Last but not least, this is the most optimistic scenario in which the GDP Curve rises like a SpaceX Launcher after a crash characterized by a steady advancement in technology which appear promising but ultimately disappoints. It more than makes up for lost ground before reverting back to the Normal trend line thus forming a Z-Shaped chart.

The shapes of GDP Recovery Curves is determined by both the speed and direction of the prints depending on the multiple factors including technological advancements, Monetary and Fiscal measures, consumers income and sentiments.
The Kenyan GDP Curve was slowing down even before Covid-19 hit and the trouble has been enlarged because of the cessation to movements and traveling whereby the Air industry has been affected the most with countries forced to Produce and consume internally. Economist predict a Z-Shaped or at least a V-Shaped Recovery to the most preferably case scenarios and if not, we should have a U-Shaped Recovery or a SWOOSH to get back on our feet in a couple of years. On the other hand, a W-Shaped Recovery would bring in a great dip in GDP Curve before eventually rising, while the L-Shaped or the Inverted Square Root Recovery would further dip the GDP Curve.
 

Covid-19, Economies, Curves and R

Sorry I have not posted for quite some time now since my last post. As you all know, it took a microbe to expose the vulnerabilities of the world economy, forcing individuals and world economies to acknowledge problems they have long been trying to turn a blind eye on; inequality in Health and Wealth.

Indeed our financial well being hinges on business prospects and the economy. Our income levels, job security and ROI (Return On Investments) will no longer be at risk the faster the economy recovers. The most likely scenario is a V-shaped recovery where growth eventually rebounds as was the case in the 2008 world financial crisis according to a study done by the Harvard School of Business. According to most economists, a V-shaped scenario is the second best thing that could happen to the world economy as it quickly picks momentum post the crisis and recovers lost ground, getting back to the normal trend. Top of the most optimistic scenario is the Z-shaped recovery which the economy recoups lost ground as it rises up quickly in a short period soon after cessation and/or restrictions to movements and travel are uplifted before reverting back to the normal trend lines forming a Z-shaped chart. After the pandemic is over and it starts to return to normalcy, will the Kenyan government choose the path of citizen empowerment or totalitarian surveillance? (time’ll tell).

According to Fitch Ratings; a credit rating agency that analyses and rates a country’s investment viability against the likelihood of default where a letter system/model is used to gauge profitable prospects where “AAA” rating represents a country’s reliable cash flows and thus regarded as high quality while a “D” rating represents a country has already defaulted.

Kenya’s economy is forecasted to grow by 3% in 2020 down from an estimated 5.6% in 2019 and then 4% in 2021. With the country’s “B+” rating in the forth quarter of 2019 reflecting high public debts and external debts with a more than cautious fiscal adjustments balanced against a strong and stable investment growth and viability outlook, a steady economic growth output will thus accelerate to 6% in 2022. IF (a very big IF) the necessary factors are considered to break the debt cycle with improved governance and resolved conflicts of interest. Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of investing in Healthcare and thus people.

Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, we have been presented with a unique opportunity to make lasting changes. With lessons from previous experience governments have an obligation to invest soon after the pandemic when interest rates are low and private sector investments are falling; a new economic mindset that can be scaled forward and backward without the loss of livelihoods for citizens. The short term, middle term and long term effects of the pandemic will depend on decisions made in the face of the crisis.

Businesses are trying to find innovative solutions and models to weather this crisis. Will we now move to closed economies of nationalist isolation or try to outdo this pandemic through solidarities and global cooperation which may outlive the crisis and become the order of the world with the sharing of beneficial technologies, authentic information and medical trainers to save millions of lives and trillions in terms of economic value.

27 Grits of unsolicited Advice

Stardate 20167.3

The “20” stands for the year “2020” the number “167” stands for days of the year at current moment in time Tuesday “June 16th” The decimal “.3” stands for time of the day which is roughly 7am at the time of writing this post. I turn 27 years old today..
From where i am right now i can’t remember every little details from 10 years ago when i was 17, just the facts. I had just been “promoted” to form two through a light beating by  the then form twos’ , joined wildlife club and visited a national park as local tourists; simple macro econimic activity etc etc etc. But turning 27 a lot of “firsts” are still dominant,I am writing my first book, starting my own company, Life has transitioned to a phase where i feel my choices are intentional, i know what discomfort means in order to grow, i know what motivates me and what doesn’t. Popular opinion; turning 25 is when you experience midlife crisis, who knows? Maybe everybody gets to experience it in some parts of their life.
Here are my 27 bits of unsolicited quotes and advice which i offer as my birthday present to all of you. It’s my Birthday, I’m 27.

1. Men plan, fate laughs – Jim Butcher
2. Fate is by far the greatest mystery of all- Deanna Raybourn.
3. Fate loves the fearless – James Rusell  Lowell
4. We create our fate everyday, most of the ills we suffer from are directly traceable from our own behavior – Henry Miller
5. Fate is shaped half by expectation, half by intention – Amy Tan
6. It seems to me further that it is very odd that fate should leave so careful a trail and spend so little time preparing the one that must follow it – Robin McKinley
7. Character is destiny – Heraclitus
8. What’s the future? It’s a blank sheet of paper and we draw lines on it, but sometimes our hand is held and the lines we draw aren’t the lines we wanted – John Marsden
9. The future was with fate, the present was our own – Arthur Conan Doyle
10. No destiny attacks us from outside. But within him, man bears his fate and there comes a moment when he knows himself vulnerable and then as in vertigo, blunder upon blunder lures him – Antoine de Saint Exupery
11. Why so much grief for me? No man will hurl me down to death against my fate. And fate? No man alive has ever escaped it, neither brave man nor coward, i tell you its born with us the day that we are born – Homer
12. Do not be afraid, our fate can not be taken from us! It’s a gift – Dante Alighieri
13. Once you make a decision, the universe conspires to make it happen – Ralph Emerson
14. Some things are destined to be- it just takes us a couple of tries to get there – J.R Ward
15. Accept the things to which fate binds you and love the people with whom fate brings you together but do so with all your heart – Marcus Aurelius
16. Fate is never fair, you are caught in a current much stronger than you are; struggle against it and you’ll drown not just yourself but those who try to save you. Swim with it and you’ll survive – Cassandra Claire
17. I think of how life takes unexpected twists and turns, sometimes through sheer happenstance, sometimes through calculated decisions. In the end it can all be called fate, but to me it’s more a matter of faith – Emily Griffin
18. To make something good just do it, To make something great just re-do it, re-do it, re-do it. The secret of making fine things is in remaking them
19. To make mistakes is human,to own your mistakes is divine. Nothing elevates a person higher than than quickly admitting and taking personal responsibility for the mistakes you make and then fixing them fairly. If you mess up fess up. It’s astounding how powerful this ownership is.
20. Show up. Keep showing up. Somebody successful said 99% of success is jut showing up.
21. Pros are just armetures who know how to gracefully recover from their mistakes
22. A worthy goal for a year is to learn enough about a subject so that you can’t believe how ignorant you were a year earlier
23. Learn how to learn from those you disagree with or even offend you. See if you can find the truth in what they believe
24. Trust me; there’s no “them”
25. Saving money and investing money are both good habits. Small amounts of money invested regularly for many decades without deliberation is one path to wealth
26. Following your bliss is a recipe for paralysis if you don’t know what you are passionate about. A better motto for most youths is “master something, anything” Through mastery of one thing, you can drift towards extensions of that mastery that bring you more joy and eventually discover where your bliss is
27. Over the long term, the future is decided by optimists. To be an optimist you don’t have to ignore all the many problems we create; you just have to imagine improving our capacity to solve problems.

A Birthday gift to all of you that puts fun into learning published on 16th June 2020.

Lifes Adventure #poetry #inspiration

What if life’s not what we think

There’s rejoice when we are born

And sorrow when we are gone

What if it should be the other way round

What if we are here for a mission

It’s crazy how on this road, life’s so enticing

Cause this world is so sweet and it drifts us

We should be crying when we give birth

And rejoicing when one passes on

What if passing on means the next level; a step forward

Instead we should be honouring, not weeping

For life in this world is just a test; devils playground

Whatever we do, get out of bed everyday and do it

Until you can’t wake up anymore

For we are mere mortals faced with different but same tests

2 AM

Keep on keeping on, no matter what keep your head up and carry on.

CROWN HER #poetry

Africa, The Mother Land
Beautys’ pure orgasm
Black coffee; Dark & Natural

Her rivers are filled with joy
The giggle of a grand child
At sunset, under the horizon

Serenity to behold
Blame her not for the smiles
Her Golden Heart Glows

Out of the blue
She turned green; Tea, Coffee
Once in a blue moon, priceless gifts

Her legs stood on Gold Heels
Like a coconut tree on Zanzibar beach
You couldn’t resist her Sun City eyes

A steam Engine tube train
Spearing down, Cairo to Cape
At jumping antelopes speed

Finally One Up vs The World
She went against all odds to lead
A Woman President, Africa United States

Of Economic Essays

A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step.